Free Trade: Friend or Foe?
"Trade deficit a record again" screams the AP headline. "Oil price chief among culprits" is the subhead.
Sounds ominous…but if you haven't been losing sleep over it, don't start now.
Where the commonly held (mis)perception that trade deficits are bad and surpluses are good originated confounds me. Many others have laid this fallacy to rest. Yet newspapers and politicians keep promulgating this rubbish -- I suspect because selling misery is a necessity of their trade.
Do you feel miserable when you buy Asian made electronic goods at prices so low you can't believe it? How bad do you feel after paying next to nothing for gorgeous clothes made in the global marketplace? Do you feel sucker punched when you buy an imported car with either a quality or price you can't find in an American made product?
Now that you're past all that misery, what about warnings like those made by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's who asserts: "Trade is far and away the largest weight on the US economy at present. This is a risky time." And Richard Trumpka of the AFL-CIO claims "America's gargantuan trade deficit is a weight around workers' necks pulling them into a cycle of debt, bankruptcy, and low-wage service jobs."
Congress is threatening a 27.5% tariff on Chinese imports to counter the loss of 3 million US manufacturing jobs since 2000. Some economists express concern that foreigners may lose their appetite for buying our stocks, bonds and real estate (the incoming cash flow which balances the trade deficit) causing the value of the dollar to plummet. Shouldn't we push the panic button and stop all this importing and free trade?
First, if Trumpka thinks having us pay higher prices for TVs, clothes, and autos will reduce our likelihood of going into debt and bankruptcy, I'd suggest he re-enroll in the math class he slept through.
Second, manufacturing jobs have been declining for decades worldwide (not just in America) due to the arrival of the information age. This is no different than the precipitous drop in farming jobs we saw during the industrial age. Does Zandi think Americans would better off toiling on farms and in factories to earn their living?
It's true millions of jobs are destroyed each year, sometimes in clumps when factories close. That makes news. But millions more jobs are created than lost -- often one at a time. You seldom hear about those.
Despite what the alarmists would have you believe, more Americans are employed now than ever before, and average annual earnings stand at an all-time high.
Can someone please restate the problem here? Because I just don't see one.
So long as foreigners will accept little green slips of paper (intrinsic value zero) in exchange for fine cars, clothes, and computers, aren't they the ones who need trade protection?
And for those who own any stocks, bonds, or real estate, you have the trade deficit to thank for pushing up prices. It's only natural that we trade things which we have in abundance (the same stocks, bonds, real estate, plus our American know-how) for that we have little (oil and willingness to toil).
No doubt the day will arrive when this state of affairs changes…after all that's the natural result of free trade. The ever-changing US dollar exchange rate is what allows such changes to occur smoothly. A weaker dollar is the market's response to large trade deficits.
Ultimately, the value of the dollar (like any other commodity) is determined by supply and demand. Since there's no shortage of demand, we only need look to overproduction of greenbacks by the US Treasury to explain the devaluation of the US dollar over the last 5 years (as defined by the 135% rise in the price of gold).
If you're looking for the real culprits of economic misery, try the voracious appetite of government, crushing taxation, and politicians' promise of guns, butter, and a free lunch. Not free trade.
Sounds ominous…but if you haven't been losing sleep over it, don't start now.
Where the commonly held (mis)perception that trade deficits are bad and surpluses are good originated confounds me. Many others have laid this fallacy to rest. Yet newspapers and politicians keep promulgating this rubbish -- I suspect because selling misery is a necessity of their trade.
Do you feel miserable when you buy Asian made electronic goods at prices so low you can't believe it? How bad do you feel after paying next to nothing for gorgeous clothes made in the global marketplace? Do you feel sucker punched when you buy an imported car with either a quality or price you can't find in an American made product?
Now that you're past all that misery, what about warnings like those made by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's who asserts: "Trade is far and away the largest weight on the US economy at present. This is a risky time." And Richard Trumpka of the AFL-CIO claims "America's gargantuan trade deficit is a weight around workers' necks pulling them into a cycle of debt, bankruptcy, and low-wage service jobs."
Congress is threatening a 27.5% tariff on Chinese imports to counter the loss of 3 million US manufacturing jobs since 2000. Some economists express concern that foreigners may lose their appetite for buying our stocks, bonds and real estate (the incoming cash flow which balances the trade deficit) causing the value of the dollar to plummet. Shouldn't we push the panic button and stop all this importing and free trade?
First, if Trumpka thinks having us pay higher prices for TVs, clothes, and autos will reduce our likelihood of going into debt and bankruptcy, I'd suggest he re-enroll in the math class he slept through.
Second, manufacturing jobs have been declining for decades worldwide (not just in America) due to the arrival of the information age. This is no different than the precipitous drop in farming jobs we saw during the industrial age. Does Zandi think Americans would better off toiling on farms and in factories to earn their living?
It's true millions of jobs are destroyed each year, sometimes in clumps when factories close. That makes news. But millions more jobs are created than lost -- often one at a time. You seldom hear about those.
Despite what the alarmists would have you believe, more Americans are employed now than ever before, and average annual earnings stand at an all-time high.
Can someone please restate the problem here? Because I just don't see one.
So long as foreigners will accept little green slips of paper (intrinsic value zero) in exchange for fine cars, clothes, and computers, aren't they the ones who need trade protection?
And for those who own any stocks, bonds, or real estate, you have the trade deficit to thank for pushing up prices. It's only natural that we trade things which we have in abundance (the same stocks, bonds, real estate, plus our American know-how) for that we have little (oil and willingness to toil).
No doubt the day will arrive when this state of affairs changes…after all that's the natural result of free trade. The ever-changing US dollar exchange rate is what allows such changes to occur smoothly. A weaker dollar is the market's response to large trade deficits.
Ultimately, the value of the dollar (like any other commodity) is determined by supply and demand. Since there's no shortage of demand, we only need look to overproduction of greenbacks by the US Treasury to explain the devaluation of the US dollar over the last 5 years (as defined by the 135% rise in the price of gold).
If you're looking for the real culprits of economic misery, try the voracious appetite of government, crushing taxation, and politicians' promise of guns, butter, and a free lunch. Not free trade.
